Spoiler Robert Kennedy takes close to four points from Donald Trump in Pennsylvania to give Kamala Harris the lead and a 266-262 electoral college edge based on all RealClearPolitics polls the final week of July.
Trump leads by two points in the Trump vs. Harris PA polls, but the 5-way Trump-Harris-Robert Kennedy-Jill Stein-Cornel West where second choices do not matter, Harris now leads. With Harris already ahead, the rumored selection of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as Harris’ VP would make a Trump comeback more difficult in the state, in which case it would come down to Wisconsin.
The only state in which the candidates are within one point of each other is Wisconsin, meaning it would determine if Trump wins 272-266 or Harris wins 276-262.
This conclusion is based on the table below showing the average of 5-person and 2-person race polls from RealClearPolitics during the last week of July, and the assumption that the 1 percent for West and Stein would go to Harris in a 2-way. This is the same table I used to predict Trump's upset win in 2016 and his loss in 2020, based on looking at the likely spoiler impact in polling data and reports from door-to-door canvassing teams.
If Wisconsin is still the lone state that would decide the Presidency on election day, the bad news for Republicans is in Wisconsin, GOP candidates for President, Governor, and the U.S. Senate have a 1-16 record, unless they are named Ron Johnson, Scott Walker, or Tommy Thompson, who have won several races each.
The concern for Democrats is that of the 26 gubernatorial challengers in 2022, Republicans in Nevada and Wisconsin performed the best. Joe Lombardo was the only challenger to win, and Tim Michels produced the best result among the other 25 challengers - so even if PA went to Harris, Republicans would just need Trump, as a challenger, to win the same states where those two GOP challengers produced the best showings in the nation to get to 278 electors.
Even if Nevada voters pass the Final 5 initiative in November to stop spoilers like Kennedy from flipping elections, it will not take effect in time for this election. Thus, Trump still needs to win 5-way races in Nevada and Wisconsin, despite potential votes lost to Kennedy (polling at about 5 percent) or Libertarian Chase Oliver, who is currently not polling but whose 81,000 votes as a Georgia US Senate candidate likely prevented Herschel Walker from winning the Senate seat without a runoff.
Oliver has praised Trump as a disruptor and represents an alternate "no more endless wars" candidate that liberal nonprofits might use to siphon a few more votes from Trump.
The election is not being held today, so things can change. Republicans hope that Kamala Harris's surge is similar to Sarah Palin’s in 2008, when she briefly boosted McCain-Palin's prospects before a series of negative ads led to high negatives that had such an impact Palin’s unfavorables were still above 60 percent as late as her Alaska Congressional run in 2022.
Democrats hang hopes on another scenario. This summer, a poll revealed that 25 percent of all voters had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Joe Biden (dubbed “double haters”). Democrats hope that by removing one of these options, voters will turn to a new choice.
Currently, Trump leads in a 2-way race in Pennsylvania - so when voters who plan to vote for Kennedy, Stein, West or likely in the future Oliver tell a pollster who they would choose between the top 2 - Trump wins. However, in a 5-way race, a majority is not necessary. At present, Harris wins Pennsylvania with a plurality due to Kennedy siphoning 4 points from Trump, while Stein and West together take only 1 point from Harris.
We will need to see if Harris’s lead in Pennsylvania holds and if Trump can regain ground. If Harris secures Pennsylvania with support from rumored VP pick Governor Shapiro or other developments, RealClearPolitics averages the last week of July suggest it will all come down to Wisconsin, which along with the next state Nevada were the two states where our team members led door-to-door canvassing efforts to support the top two top-performing gubernatorial challengers in 2022.
You can create your own map at https://www.270towin.com/.
Comments