While our grassroots team continues their hard work connecting with voters across Wisconsin on leave, President John Pudner took a short reprieve from the trail to begin his latest radio tour across our Republic, calling down to his old stomping grounds in Birmingham, Alabama to not only analyze the current state of the race to the White House, but how polling trends, past and present, can help preview what looks to be the most closely divided and watched presidential election cycle since Bush v. Gore in 2000 - a campaign Pudner led the faith-based voter outreach program for.
From unlikely outcomes, such as how Nebrasksa's 2nd District electoral vote could play an important role, to how Wisconsin will play a pivotal role as the key to the White House, Pudner, conducting an in-depth analysis of past and present polling trends, dives into the ever-changing landscape of this election cycle, charting unpredictable paths for both former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as both head into the final weeks of the campaign. The race is even leading them to join the area of College Football, with former President Trump set to attend the highly-anticipated game this Saturday night between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs, a matchup not only critical for both team's future in the playoffs, but critical for both presidential candidates, as polls in Georgia continues to tighten off the heels of Harris and VP candidate Tim Walz's bus tour across the Peach state.
As Pudner and host John Mountz discuss, not only does the race for the White House remain as contentious and as divided as ever, but also continues to evolve in new and fascinating ways, setting up a historic Presidential showdown as two of the country's top College Football teams battle it out this Saturday night for the heart, mind, and soul of our Republic.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Alabama, Georgia, Trump, Harris, overcome, trends, razor-thin, win, polling.
SPEAKERS
John Mountz and TBOR Action President John Pudner
John Mountz 00:00
We're now joined by John Pudner. He is the President of Take Back Our Republic Action and was an aide to Bush in 2000. John, welcome to the show!
John Pudner 00:09
Thanks, and up here in Wisconsin, your football players weren't very friendly on their visits!
John Mountz 00:14
I apologize! You know we do our best, but you know, sometimes we have business to take care of, what can I tell you? So, John, let's talk about the situation this election cycle. We have some states that are always supposed to go blue, or are expected to go blue, and that looks like they're closer than they used to be, and this bodes well for the former President, doesn't it?
John Pudner 00:36
It does. It's razor thin, as of course, everyone knows, but we just looked at our trend lines, which way have the polls been moving in each state over the last month, and if that continued, where would you end up? One thing we're just putting out this morning is that still does leave Harris winning Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by about a point, but Trump still winning the election, because North Carolina, Georgia, and now Wisconsin are trending the other way to slight Trump wins. The movement in Wisconsin went from 3.4 points for Harris to 1.5, and what you often see is the trend continues going into the last month. Right now, it's razor-thin, but I've got down Trump 272-266 and that's without Pennsylvania.
John Mountz 01:26
Where do you put Wisconsin? Which column does Wisconsin go in?
John Pudner 01:31
That's been the biggest movement in the last month. I've got Wisconsin going Trump. We did this in 2016 and had all the states right except two. Wisconsin moved from a 3.4 Harris lead to only 1.5 over the past month, and often we see that trend continue from September on. If that happened, Trump would have a narrow win here by 0.4, which is, by the same trend, he'd win Georgia by half a point and win North Carolina by 0.8 points. It's that close. He'd have to have all three under this scenario, but all three of those are moving toward very slight Trump wins.
John Mountz 02:15
Hey, a W is a W, even if it's close! Some of the other states you did mention, like Georgia. I'm very curious about this one, because it's an interesting state. Trump lost it in the previous election. It's a very, very red state, but in the middle of it, is a very, very blue area in Atlanta, specifically Fulton County, so as much as we're able to poll, it somewhat comes down to what people are doing in that one area.
John Pudner 02:40
It's interesting. Most of Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, most of the states, geographically, are the same. They're sort of a pretty high church attendance, the rural areas are very strong, but it's just how big a city you have to overcome. In Wisconsin, the Republican has to overcome half a million people in Milwaukee, obviously...
John Mountz 02:40
And Madison, which is pretty liberal too...
John Pudner 02:46
Yeah, Madison, too, the whole of Dane County. I hate to say it, but in Alabama, Republican has to overcome right where you're sitting, got to overcome Birmingham, but it's a smaller city...
John Mountz 03:06
Jefferson County is always...Basically, you look at map of Alabama, and it's a big red map, but then there's a blue dot in the middle of Jefferson County, there's often a blue dot down there in Mobile County and Montgomery county, and one up there in Madison County, where Huntsville is, and other than that, the whole state is red. Unfortunately, that's where a lot of people are. But we always...well, I can't say always, you know, because we did end up with Doug Jones as our US Senator for a couple years....So, every so often, even in Alabama, we have been known to make some mistakes.
John Pudner 03:45
Yeah, Alabama is mainly competing with Wyoming and West Virginia for top Trump state this time, though, so that's that's the only excitement there. Will you be number one?
John Mountz 03:53
That's one of the reasons why it's surprising that Donald Trump is going to be coming to the Alabama vs. Georgia game in Tuscaloosa, and a lot of people are scratching their heads, thinking why is he coming here? He's got this state, you know? What's his angle on this?
John Pudner 04:10
There are a lot of Georgia eyeballs on that game in addition to others. I think it's a favorable setting. Football fans are more conservative overall, I mean, we look at all these things, so I think he's thinking eyeballs on TV there, and the visiting fans watching that one, as being a little more important for that visit.
John Mountz 04:30
I mentioned that, you know, on one hand, here in Alabama, we're rooting for the home team. But, if him being there, and sitting on the Georgia side, and pooling for Georgia gives us the state of Georgia in the election? I am willing to take one for the team on that one, John, because we definitely need Georgia back in our column, even if it means that Donald Trump is pulling for the other guys for this one game. John Pudner, thank you so much for joining us.
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