Continuing his tour as Fox News Radio's official post-election analyst, President John Pudner traveled to nearby Cleveland, Ohio, a place that was crucial for young Punder's political development, to discuss not only the full details behind President Trump's victory against Vice President Kamala Harris, but in this particular case, how the polls, pundits, and donors got it wrong yet again in one of many instances throughout the last decade.
One such reason is the shifting nature of the electorate, where in recent years, political allegiances have become increasingly fluid. Traditional partisan divides are breaking down on economic, immigration, and public safety among many key issues for the electorate as stances become more complex and personalized for particular subsets of voters. However, more than ever, voters are less based on party and more on the candidates themselves. Trump's success this cycle, becoming the first Republican candidate to win both the electoral and popular vote since President W. Bush's re-election in 2004, while carrying several down-ballot Senate and House races across the finish line, wasn't always the case, with candidates like Wisconsin's Eric Hovde, Arizona's Kari Lake, and Nevada's Sam Brown falling short despite Trump's success in all three states.
As Pudner and host Bill Wills detail, despite a $1,000,000,000 campaign, media outlets fawning and giving special treatment, such as an impromptu Saturday Night Live appearance in clear disregard of FFC rules, and polls showcasing leads heading into Election Day, Harris' short-lived campaign could not stump Trump, his campaign, or the silent majority of voters looking to push our Republic in a new direction.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Trump, Harris, early vote, polling errors, black vote, Pennsylvania poll, Iowa poll
SPEAKERS
Bill Wills and TBOR Action President John Pudner
Bill Wills: 00:00
I want to bring in John Pudner, President of Take Back Our Republic Action, for a few minutes here on the Fox News hotline. John’s been involved in many campaigns over the years. I know you're a fun guy to talk to, and I wanted to have you on this morning because we weren’t sure where this election was going to go. There’s been so much talk about how it would be handled, whether there would be lawsuits, and where things stood this morning. It looks like Trump had a clear enough win that we shouldn’t be talking about legal challenges, but there was a lot of legal maneuvering going on up until yesterday, right, John?
TBOR Action President John Pudner: 00:26
Yeah, there was. Honestly, I think this race has been over for about three weeks. The polls were just off. We went on record last week in several interviews, and I’ve never done this before—we picked all 50 states correctly. The voter registration had shifted so dramatically to Republicans, and the early vote had shifted so dramatically as well. It just looked over. Every campaign lawyer is prepared for any potential legal challenges—Republicans and Democrats alike—just in case they need to contest things. But now, the AP and New York Times have called it, and there’s no one left holding out making the argument that the race isn’t over. So, I think we’re past any legal challenges now.
Bill Wills: 01:05
Let’s be political junkies for a minute here. Democrats spent about $3.5 billion on this campaign, and I’ve seen estimates that the Republicans spent around $2 billion. Someone did the math last night and said that with all the money spent, we could’ve handed every American $50. It’s been said that she was flying the plane while building it—didn’t have a lot of time, and the incumbent’s approval rating was bad. What kind of chance did she have? Yet, so many in the national media and the polls kept showing she had a chance to pull this thing off. What do you think, John?
TBOR Action President John Pudner: 01:37
Yeah, and on top of that, you’ve got all this money poured into these “Never Trump” efforts. It’s been year after year of attacking Trump, and honestly, that’s got to be one of the worst returns on investment in history. But you’re absolutely right—she started late, she’s running on a failed administration, and the polling was just terrible. I used to run a call center, and Nate Silver, to his credit, pointed out that there was no mathematical way that so many polls could be within a point or two of each other, especially if it was a true tie race. Statistically, only about half of polls end up within two points. They were fudging the numbers. Pollsters were running surveys and didn’t want to rock the boat—they didn’t want to do anything that seemed out of line. So they just averaged everything out. I believe Trump had a 5-point lead, but they were calling it just a 1-point race. In the end, the polling was pretty unreliable this year.
Bill Wills: 02:38
One example was the Des Moines Register poll. Sunday morning, the big talk was that Iowa was in play—suddenly, they had her up by five points. Trump ended up winning Iowa 56 to 42 percent.
TBOR Action President John Pudner: 02:50
That’s right. And there was one other poll that came in the same day, and it was way off from what everyone else expected. Echelon came out with a poll saying Trump was up six points in Pennsylvania. They were actually right. They had the guts to put out a poll that said something completely different from the rest. I contacted the head of it and asked, "You’re going out on a limb saying Trump is up six points while everyone else is showing a tie or saying she’s up by one. Why do you think that?" He said, “I can tell you, I’ve been tracking the black vote, and it's down in a lot of places. We're seeing a huge shift in the black vote toward Trump, especially in areas like the South, and that’s going to show up in places like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee.” He said, “Our numbers are right. Trump is winning big in Pennsylvania.” So, that pollster had the guts to go against the grain, and he was right. But other than that, most of these polls were just off.
Bill Wills: 03:55
Good points. John Pudner, President of Take Back Our Republic Action, great insights this morning, thank you!
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