While Kamala Harris could still realistically secure a 276-262 victory in the Presidential race, that would require a significant reversal of the recent trend favoring Donald Trump. Unfortunately for Democrats, this is not only her ceiling but also less likely than Trump achieving a commanding 312-226 blowout victory.
The Value of Accurate Polling
My confidence in this analysis stems from my belief in Nate Silver’s methodology, which is evident from my Facebook page showcasing a photo of us at an MIT event. Although I correctly predicted Trump’s win in 2016—while Silver had a more cautious outlook—his adjusted polling data tends to be the most reliable. He recognizes the biases in various polls, such as those from the New York Times, which he ranks highly but notes often overestimate Democratic candidates' support by about one point. Thus, when polls suggest a tie, Silver typically adjusts his analysis to reflect a slight Republican advantage.
The Current Landscape
Since Robert Kennedy’s withdrawal from the race, the competition has effectively become a two-person contest. In 2020, Trump lost pivotal states like Wisconsin due to vote-splitting among conservatives; this time, that spoiler is gone. Silver’s recent tracking shows that, in the past month, Trump has gained ground in all seven battleground states, indicating a consistent trend.
The only factor that Silver does not factor is the momentum heading into the final weeks of a campaign. Historical data suggests that trends tend to persist or even accelerate in the closing days. This was crucial in my own predictions for 2016, where I accurately forecasted 48 out of 50 states while Silver still had Trump losing narrowly.
Analyzing the Electoral Map
Based on Silver’s calculations prior to the recent Wall Street Journal poll—which showed Trump surging ahead by three points nationally—Harris is in a precarious position. Even with a complete reversal of momentum, her potential path to victory is narrow, relying heavily on capturing Pennsylvania. In her best moments following a debate, she only managed to sway two states a full point in her direction, underscoring the challenges ahead. Even if she completely reversed the trend and surged almost a full point in all seven states - she would still be stuck at a narrow 276-262 win with no margin for error.
In the more likely scenario that the current trend continues, Harris could find herself stuck at 226 electoral votes, with Trump positioned for at least a 291-226 edge pending a projected tie in Michigan and Nevada that would simply determine how lopsided Trump’s win would be as both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would go Trump based on the current trend.
Subjective Factors Influencing the Race
Beyond the numbers, there are subjective factors indicating a quickening trend in Trump’s favor. Notably, early voting data from battleground states like Nevada and Pennsylvania shows Republicans have not only closed the gap but are now outpacing Democrats in early ballots. Historically, Republicans have dominated election day voting, so to actually have a chance to WIN the early vote is a huge improvement over their 2020 showing.
In 2020, I was interviewed on Breitbart Radio encouraging Republicans to vote early, yet many did not, which ultimately contributed to their loss. Adapting to the rules of engagement is crucial, regardless of personal preferences.
Another significant polling item from the Washington Post reveals a shift that must have stunned Never Trumpers: Americans now trust Trump more than Harris to defend democracy. The intense focus on legal actions against Trump has, paradoxically, shifted perceptions, making some voters question the motives behind these actions.
While Democrats still hold an advantage on issues like abortion, Trump’s edge in areas like inflation and immigration resonates more strongly with voters, particularly as concerns about living costs intensify. Add to that Charlamagne the god and his co-host reaching a huge urban audience with a scorching review of Kamala Harris’ pledge at a transgender forum to provide taxpayer-funded sex changes for any prisoner who wants it likely explains the highly regarded Atlas Polling showing close to 30 percent support for Trump among Black Americans in several battleground states.
Admitted subjectively I am biased due to separate duties to oversee dozens of canvassers for the Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition driving out conservative voters, as well as knowing my counterparts with the Faith and Freedom Coalitions in the other battleground states doing the same with hundreds of canvassers. But the feedback at doors is night and day better for conservatives than in 2020, when I predicted Biden’s win due to a shift the other way that the doors that election year.
Though two weeks may seem like an eternity in politics, the path to victory for Harris is increasingly steep, resembling an IndyCar driver needing to make a U-turn to win. With trends favoring Trump, the likelihood of a blowout victory for Trump appears far more plausible than Harris eking out a narrow win.
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